Theorycraft: T15vsT16 Set Bonuses, Continued Analysis

Our previous restoration druid set-bonus theorycraft post has received a lot of positive feedback, due to this we are going to be doing analysis for every heroic encounter this tier.  We will break down the spell mixes, gains/losses from bonuses, and stat differences for all 14 heroic encounters.  Hopefully this will help your raid team figure out when, or if, you want to give your restoration druid any tier gear.  Additionally, if the druid has access to both T15 and T16 four piece, they can choose which fights to run which set bonus.  This week we have analyzed the Heroic Galakras, Sha of Pride, and Iron Juggernaut encounters.  We will hopefully be posting approximately three new encounter analysis articles a week, so feedback or comments on the format, content, or accuracy of these articles are welcomed!  Feel free to comment below or shoot us a quick tweet.  Finally, we recommend you read the aforementioned post before reading this one, as it is largely a continuation of the analysis.

Heroic Galakras Analysis

World of Logs Reference: Click Here
Spreadsheet Reference: Click Here

The above image just shows the control data that I am using for this analysis.  You can see the spell mix with the percentage of healing done for each spell.  Next, we simply turned on the set bonuses for T15 and T16 without adjusting the gear.  The results are as you would expect:

Spreadsheet Reference: Click Here

A few things to take note of here.  First, I was assigned to a tower team for most of the fight.  Due to this, my efflorescence healing is going to be less than if I was on the bottom team.  The same goes for my Rejuvenation healing, since I have less targets and damage to heal for the majority of the encounter.  This may skew results a bit, we will be doing another heroic Galakras analysis with a ground team druid soon.  With that said, with gear held constant, the old set bonuses are still better than the current set bonuses.  Now for the parts that matter, the stat gains from the T16 gear.  Below are the numbers for T15 Heroic 4pc versus T16 Normal 4pc:

Spreadsheet Reference: Click Here

You’ll notice that the projected overall healing loss from going to T16 normal mode 4pc is less than previous simulations.  Again, this may be skewed due to my assignment on the fight.  However, it is still showing a net loss of throughput by “upgrading” T16 tier pieces.  What about heroic T16?  Here are our results:

Spreadsheet Reference: Click Here

Thus far, this is the first time that the total healing change of going to T16 tier pieces has shown a positive value.  Once again, this result may be a bit skewed.  Although, even considering potential skewing, the positive value is extremely small.  Due to margins of error, it is hard to conclusively say that T16 heroic 4pc would be better than T15 heroic 4pc in this situation.

Heroic Sha of Pride Analysis

World of Logs Reference: Click Here
Spreadsheet Reference: Click Here

Once again, this image just shows the spell mix for this encounter’s analysis.  One thing to note is the large percentage of healing done by Tranquility.   This will surely impact the results of the analysis, as tranquility does not benefit from any set bonuses, but does benefit from increased stats.  Here are the results keeping gear constant:

Spreadsheet Reference: Click Here

As you can see, my prediction was correct.  Due to the high percentage of tranquility heals, the loss of no T15 set bonus is much lower.  Even in this scenario, it is clear that our old set bonuses are still better than the new ones.  How does stat increases effect this?  Let’s take a look at the total healing changes when we put on T16 normal mode 4pc:

Spreadsheet Reference: Click Here

For the first time, the loss of going to T16 normal mode tier pieces is extremely low.  Within the margin of error, it is difficult to draw much meaningful analysis from this simulation.  Perhaps when comparing heroic T15 with heroic T16 we will get a larger number:

Spreadsheet Reference: Click Here

We finally see a result where going to T16 4pc is definitively the correct decision.  A few important things to remember.  The reason why we achieved this result is because of tranquility’s high percentage of healing done, as well as rejuvenation and efflorescence’s relatively low percentage of healing.  This analysis has drawn some conclusions on the gear debate, which we go into more detail about below.

Heroic Iron Juggernaut Analysis

World of Logs Reference: Click Here
Spreadsheet Reference: Click Here

Finally, the above image is the spell mix for the Heroic Iron Juggernaut analysis.  Tranquility is quite high as a percentage of healing, but rejuvenation is also higher.  Once again, the results for the test with stats constant and comparing the two set bonuses is not surprising:

Spreadsheet Reference: Click Here

It appears that this Juggernaut simulation will land somewhere in between the results of the previous two.  Let’s see how this looks when we put normal mode T16 gear into the calculations:

Spreadsheet Reference: Click Here

Surprisingly, we actually see larger losses in throughput on this simulation than with Galakras.  Despite a high percentage of healing from Tranquility, the old set bonus still comes out ahead of the stat gains from T16 gear.  Can the same be said when looking at heroic T16 gear?  Let’s take a look:

Spreadsheet Reference: Click Here

Just like the other heroic bosses analyzed above, we receive a net increase with a full heroic T16 set compared to our T15 set.  However, it is important to note that the change is very small and within the margin of error.  Due to this, conclusive statements regarding T16 being worth taking cannot be reached.

Qualitative Analysis

Our results in this article have been more positive to upgrading our gear to Siege of Orgrimmar tier sets than our previous analysis.  However, does this mean we are recommending going to the new tier bonuses?  No.  There are a number of things to consider when looking at our data above.  First, as with all simulations, they are not “be all end all” or 100% accurate, or even close.  Essentially, our analysis takes the spell mixes and healing done by spells in a particular combat log and tells us how much more or less they would have healed with different set bonuses or stats.  Due to this, this simulation assumes that if you switched your gear the next time you did that fight, you would cast the exact same number of spells, at the same time, and everything remained constant.  Of course this is not reality.

There are also a number of considerations due to gear scarcity.  Although our analysis in this article is more positive towards T16 gear, it is very minor and mostly within the margin of error.  Thus, taking T16 tier pieces would be highly experimental and may yield lower throughput, or very marginally higher throughput.  Due to this, it would be unwise for a raid team to give a restoration druid tier pieces until EVERY other vanq token user has theirs.  So, in a situation where every other vanq user in your raid has full heroic tier tokens, then giving the resto druid the tokens to experiment with is not terrible.  On fights where Tranquility or Wild Growth provide a large amount of healing, the stats from T16 gear will be helpful.  However, any fight with high efflorescence healing or extraordinarily high rejuvenation healing would result in a loss of throughput from T16 gear.

Finally, the T15 4pc set bonus really shines when later ticks of rejuvenation does not result in mostly overheal.  Due to this, T15 will always been superior on any encounter where there is constant raid ticking raid damage and no one is ever “topped off” for more than a few seconds.

Conclusion

Overall, I still recommend staying with our Throne of Thunder heroic 4-piece set bonus for almost every encounter.  If you can get your hands on a Siege of Orgrimmar fully heroic 4-piece set bonus, without taking tokens away from other people, it might be worth trying it out on a select few encounters with high tranquility/wild growth heals.  The general conclusion is just that even on T16 4pc’s BEST fights, it is just marginally ahead of T15 4pc.  However, on T15 4pc’s BEST fight, it is far and away ahead of T16 4pc.  Additionally, even if you get a T16 4pc, you would need to be very wise on when to use it.  You’d need to consider each fight’s damage patterns, what your raid composition is, what your strategy is, what other healing classes you are healing with, your raid’s strength and weaknesses, etc. just to evaluate if the T16 4pc would be worth it.  Due to this, for your average restoration druid, it is easier to just stick with T15 4pc for all encounters.  With that strategy you might lose a very small amount of potential throughput on a very small amount of encounters, but it is so marginal to even be noticed.

We hope that this analysis helped you and your raid team.  Like we mentioned above, we will be doing this analysis for all 14 heroic encounters of Siege of Orgrimmar.  Hopefully, we can release one of these per week, but no promises.  Finally, if you have any comments or questions feel free to reply below or tweet us @Healcraft.  Happy healing!

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s